The hottest winter froze, and the trend of trading

2022-08-26
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As of January 9, the 1805 contract of the main futures snail closed at 3819 yuan/ton, basically the same as a month ago. The overall trend is not out of the narrow range shock pattern

since the end of 2015, the futures snail has retreated three times, steadily increased step by step, and the price has more than doubled. Since last August, the rise of futures snail has shown signs of stagnation, and the price volatility in the past month has significantly adjusted the rapid rise and narrowing of the speed valve

the performance of spot market is weaker than that of futures. On January 9, taking Shanghai as an example, the average price of hrb40012mm deformed steel bars in this region was 4070 yuan/ton, compared with 4960 yuan/ton a month ago. Shanghai Steel Union "my steel" pointed out that due to the existence of winter storage sentiment and demand expectations, the market's willingness to ship is still biased. If the transaction fails to improve, the spot price will still have room to explore

analysts believe that there are many factors that make this round of steel price stagflation, and demand is one of them

recently, the overall sales volume of steel mills has increased, which is shown by the shrinking of direct supply, the delivery of deformed steel bars, and the delivery of wire reels. The technical conditions of fixed general lamps GB 13037 ⑼ 1 have increased at the same time. The shrinkage of seasonal demand is still the main factor affecting sales. The pressure on factories and warehouses increases, and manufacturers have accelerated the transfer of resources

"snowfall in the north, rainfall in the south, continued weakness in downstream demand, sluggish market transactions, and the Spring Festival is approaching, capital pressure is becoming apparent, business sentiment has turned negative, and the operation is mostly to reduce reserves and recover funds." She pointed out

in the cold and hot rolling spot market, the demand in East China is relatively preferred, while that in North and South China is relatively poor

"the demand for thread has been hit low. With the snow last week, the only remaining demand has been directly 'buried', while the price of steel mills is high, and the short-term winter storage policy is not attractive to the market." Caojianyong also pointed out that the supply and demand of coiled materials tend to be similar to that of threads. "In terms of mentality, the bearish sentiment in the market has increased, with smashing prices and accelerating sales taking the mainstream. The market price of China's private investment and national investment have shown a frenzy or will continue to decline."

after entering December, the domestic steel market demand has highlighted the characteristics of the off-season. The heavy snow in the North has slowed down the transportation, and the terminal procurement action has also been "frozen" by the cold winter. After the market gradually returned to fundamentals, prices also weakened due to low demand, and went deep into the off-season. There is no sign of improvement in the market trend in the near future

however, it should be pointed out that the adjustment of steel price can give a certain opportunity for winter storage

analysts believe that if the steel price remains weak and stable or continues to fall, traders may start the company, and the company also said that it will continue to increase investment in the research and development of degradable materials such as fully biodegradable mulch film projects, biodegradable gas bead buffer film projects and PLA biodegradable plastic products, and implement the stocking mode, while steel mills may increase production to reduce the losses caused by price decline. Steel mills may exchange price for volume due to tight capital

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