The hottest time in 2018 auto industry

In 2018, the sequel of "I rely on time in the automotive industry"

(1)

the author once wrote an old article a year ago:

here is a brief explanation of the fundamental advantage of trams over cars

once the electric induction motor is powered on, it can produce torque and thrust immediately, and there is no need to shift gears. After the engine of the car catches fire, it needs to change from low gear to high gear step by step, and gradually increase the speed to improve the torque and thrust. This is the fundamental reason why trams generally accelerate faster than cars. This is why people who have driven trams are almost unwilling to go back and drive cars As shown below

Tesla's maximum configuration p100d takes only 2.5 seconds from 0 to 60 miles, which is faster than all gasoline cars currently produced, including many sports cars priced at more than $1 million

the customer who buys a car is like a young woman of childbearing age in a primitive tribe, who wants to choose a spouse between a strong man who is ready to die and a sick child who needs a few minutes to warm up. The answer is no suspense

(2)

Tesla's model s accounted for 25% of the market share of large luxury cars in the United States in 2015, as shown in the figure above. In the same period, the sales of other models generally decreased by more than 10% compared with 2014

in the first nine months of 2016, the sales of other large luxury cars fell by 12% compared with the same period in 2015, while Tesla's model s sales increased by 24% compared with the same period last year, and its market share has exceeded 30%

in other words, in the first nine months of this year, the sales volume of model s in the United States (about 21250) has been almost the same as the sum of Mercedes Benz S series and BMW 7 Series (22650) While the former is still growing, the latter is still shrinking

this is because more than 20 states in the United States restrict Tesla from selling trams directly, and some states, such as Michigan, even prohibit Tesla from setting up repair centers. As shown in the above figure, the red states do not allow Tesla to set up direct sales stores

(3)

the U.S. Small and medium-sized luxury car market, with a price between 30000 and 70000 dollars, sold 64000 vehicles (67000 vehicles per month) in the first nine months of 2016, a decrease of 8% over the same period last year. The top selling models are BMW three series, Mercedes Benz C-class, E-class and Lexus es

this is the key market for luxury cars

let's first look at the figures of several luxury car manufacturers:

BMW sold about 2.2 million cars worldwide and 340000 cars in the United States in 2015 (about 60% of which are small and medium-sized luxury cars), with a pre tax profit margin of about 12%

Mercedes Benz, with global sales of 1.87 million and American sales of 340000 (about half of which are small and medium-sized luxury cars), has a pre tax profit margin of nearly 8%

Lexus, which belongs to Toyota, has a global sales volume of 680000 and a U.S. sales volume of 340000

when model 3 with a base price of 35000 US dollars starts mass production, it will have a direct impact on the small and medium-sized luxury car market in the United States, just as model s has a direct impact on the large luxury car market

model 3 now has 370000 users who have paid a deposit of US $1000. Tesla expects to complete the production of these orders from the second half of 2017 to the middle of 2018

opponents often cite the example of delayed production of model x to conclude that model 3 will also be delayed. But they forgot: 1 The number of parts of model 3 is only half that of model x, and there is no complex Eagle wing door. 2. Tesla's management will learn from mistakes. 3. Contractors in the supply chain will certainly work harder and behave much better in the face of nearly 400000 orders that have already paid a deposit

model 3 the annual production target in 2018 is 500000, and the production capacity gradually increases every month. It can be predicted that at some point in the second half of 2018, the monthly output of model 3 will exceed 40000

according to previous experience, more than 70% of the newly produced model 3 began to be put into the U.S. market. When its monthly output exceeded 40000, about 30000 model 3 will hit the small and medium-sized luxury market in the United States, which currently sells 67000 models a month

this will be a zero sum game. The existing luxury car giants will be forced to give up more than 40% of the market. For Mercedes Benz and BMW, this means that they will suddenly reduce their sales equivalent to 800-100000 vehicles a year, accounting for 4-5% of their global sales

in the face of such an impact, if you don't want to sit back and give up the market, it is almost an inevitable choice to reduce the price by at least 5-10% before your new tram comes out

if you read my old article, the pure trams of Mercedes Benz and BMW will not come out until 2019 at the earliest, and the price, performance and capacity are still very vague. As for Lexus, which belongs to Toyota, it is still groping on the road of hydrogen fuel vehicles. I wish him good luck

(4)

when your pre tax profit margin is only 8~12%, when your vehicle sales suddenly began to decline by 4~5% in 2018, when you are forced to reduce the price by more than 5% to inventory, at the same time, in order to transform, you also need to increase investment in R & D and production, the traditional luxury auto giants may suddenly experience a sharp decline in profits, or even losses

the price reduction of luxury cars is bound to impact the prices of other middle and low-end cars in the new and used car market, forming a strong avalanche chain reaction

the drama has just begun, and all adverse factors will only get worse for auto companies

this is my time in the automotive industry

the giants in the automotive industry have no time to breathe. The next heavier blow is the deployment and implementation of fully automated driving technology

(5)

on October 19, 2016, Tesla announced that the newly produced model s, X and future model 3 will be equipped with hardware that can realize full automatic driving. In addition to the demonstration video placed on the, Tesla also announced that it would demonstrate the full range autonomous driving from Los Angeles to New York at the end of 2017 (hands do not need to touch the steering wheel)

there are two important things in this release

first, the hardware of fully automatic driving is now complete. In the future, we only need to upgrade the software to give new functions. However, cars without fully automatic driving hardware will soon depreciate significantly

second, once the regulator releases fully automatic driving, car owners can make money through Tesla's taxi

if you buy a fully autonomous car, the unit price is 60000 dollars, and the monthly payment is 600 dollars. If you use your time at work or at home at night to drive out and earn money, if you earn five dollars an hour and four hours a day, your monthly rental operation income can offset your monthly supply of car loans, and your net cost is zero! (the actual situation is more complicated. If too many driverless cars rush into the rental market and the supply exceeds the demand, the price of local routes may be very low and close to zero in a specific period of time.)

autonomous driving will change the economic mode of buying a car. Even model x, which costs more than 100000 US dollars, may have a very low overall holding cost because it can rent itself to make money, while cars without self driving function will experience an embarrassing situation of instant sharp depreciation and no one wants it

the launch of self driving commercial operation is a gradual process. When the manufacturer shows enough data to confirm the statistical safety of self driving technology, the regulator may release it step by step. In the United States, a possible timetable is:

I. in 2018, fully automatic driving with hands off the steering wheel is allowed on the highway

II. In 2019, fully automatic driving will be allowed in some parts of the United States Commercial operations in some areas can begin

III. allow full automatic driving in most regions of the United States after 2020

IV. in particularly complex road sections, traffic rules may even be modified to forcibly promote automatic driving to reduce transportation and logistics costs

if we know that the full self driving function can be partially released in 2019, the impact on consumers' purchase decisions will be shown in 2018

(6)

in this era when all cats and dogs can use GPU for in-depth learning and training, install several cameras on the car, and do simple demonstrations of automatic driving at high speed, the most important question to judge the progress of auto giants in the real full automatic driving business is:

how many self driving tests do you have on the road

Google and Ke C. regularly check the transmission of sprockets. Lessler cooperates with Uber and Ford/Volvo. There are two or three hundred vehicles in the United States, which also gave birth to a series of technological innovations of polyurethane in the automotive industry, which are being tested on the road. Most other competitors are far from them

but compared with Tesla, which already has 100000 cars on the road, currently produces 8000 new cars a month with fully automated driving hardware, develops its own chip algorithm, and is fully vertically integrated, Google Uber is nothing

here is another detail that most people don't pay attention to: the self driving car needs to be controlled by computer commands, which has certain requirements for the drive by wire system on the car. Trams have inherent advantages in this regard, which is why you can see that many companies do driverless research and development, most of them take trams or hybrid vehicles as test vehicles

many cars have congenital defects in electronic wire control system electronic tensile testing machine, also known as electronic tensile machine system, and will be quickly eliminated in the transformation to automatic driving. 3. Take the LED highlight screen to display

(7)

the implementation of automatic driving technology will not be smooth sailing. There will definitely continue to be strange car accidents, casualties, and even hacker attacks, causing people's panic about safety

but if you read my old article

taking history as a mirror, all this will pass. The torrent of scientific and technological progress is unstoppable

the traditional automobile industry will have nowhere to hide when the time comes in 2018

there is a poem as evidence: "the white blades meet and the sword breaks, and the two armies frown and decide to die. Is it down? A lifelong barbarian. Is the war over? Bone storm gravel. "

as for trams? Maybe it's time to discuss the new business model of self driving on the mobile platform. You can refer to my old article