Nickel price is expected to reach a new high next

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The nickel price is expected to reach a new high next year

in 2016, the supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel market is the focus of the industry. The rising cost and capital promotion have caused the prices of nickel and stainless steel to soar. At the third 2016 nickel and stainless steel symposium held recently, participants expressed their views on the trend of nickel and stainless steel next year

in 2016, the supply and demand of nickel and stainless steel market is the focus of the industry. The rising cost and capital promotion have caused the prices of nickel and stainless steel to soar. In 2017, the nickel market will also meet the relevant requirements of GB, ISO, ASTM, Jin and other experimental methods. Where to go

demand increases

after China's accession to the world trade organization, the steel and stainless steel industry has entered a period of rapid growth. China's stainless steel market share continues to increase, reaching 51.9% in 2015. This year, the price of stainless steel in China has soared, and the output has also increased significantly. In 2016, with the release of new stainless steel production, the monthly production increased year-on-year. Ding Zhiqiang, senior manager of Baosteel's resource and metal trade department, predicted that this year's stainless steel production was 24.37 million tons, an increase of 13% year-on-year; Next year, there will still be new production release, and the production will further increase

the thickness of the arbitration sample is 3, such as some beams and parts that need protection in case of collision mm

with the substantial growth of stainless steel production, the global share is further increased, and the demand for nickel is also significantly increased

Ding Zhiqiang pointed out that the pattern of China's stainless steel industry is being reshaped, the concentration is further improved, and the scale of steel and stainless steel enterprises is further expanded, showing an integrated development direction. With the integrated product structure, the expectation that the proportion of nickel free stainless steel will increase has changed. With the promotion of the integrated smelting mode of nickel iron and stainless steel in China, the proportion of stainless steel containing nickel will further increase

from the perspective of demand, the growth rate of demand for nickel this year exceeded expectations; From the perspective of supply, China's nickel import volume also decreased significantly compared with last year, with a decrease of 15%; From the perspective of inventory, stainless steel production capacity, output and export are growing, and demand is improving. From the perspective of stainless steel capacity release next year, the demand for nickel will be increased and promoted. "Judging from the growth of global stainless steel production, the demand for nickel is also increasing. The supply and demand of nickel in the world this year was originally estimated to be in a state of slight excess. But this year, stainless steel has increased significantly, and the demand for nickel has also increased significantly. It is expected that the overall gap will enter a state of gap. Next year, with the further increase of nickel demand, we think that the overall structural gap of such a large nickel will be maintained and further expanded. Global stainless steel Steel inventories will also continue to decline. " Ding Zhiqiang said

supply contraction

at present, 30% of the global nickel production capacity is at a loss. When the nickel price rises, it will stimulate some potential capacity or loss capacity to increase, increase production and enrich production, making the supply elasticity relatively large. Like other commodities, nickel also has its own seasonal regularity. "Generally, nickel will have a peak process around May, and the other peak will appear in November. This law has existed in recent decades, whether bull market or bear market." Ding Zhiqiang said

for the future trend of nickel price, after the five-year decline cycle, it should enter the rebound cycle. At present, the improvement of nickel price supply and demand continues, so the upward trend of nickel price has not changed, and may reach a new high in the future. There are three main driving factors behind it

the first is the rising cost. Due to the reduction of supply, nickel ore may become a new contradiction outbreak point in the industrial chain, and the price will rise again. The price of coking coal and coke is rising, and the production cost of ferronickel is also rising, which is the same at home and abroad. In addition, the increase of crude oil price will also increase the production cost of nickel

the second contradiction is the rainy season in the Philippines, during which the output of nickel mines in the Philippines will continue to decrease, becoming the trigger point for a new round of market contradictions

the third is the inventory cycle. Enterprises may enter the state of replenishment. Most commodities have fallen to five years, and many enterprises are in a state of low inventory or even no inventory. It is understood that at present, nickel demand and orders are good, the enterprise capital flow is good, and the conditions for replenishing inventory are available. At the same time, replenishment inventory is expected to increase, and the industry is expected to enter the replenishment cycle

overall, the global supply of nickel is shrinking and demand is improving, Ding Zhiqiang concluded

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